Category: Market Outlook

VIDEO – AUGUST 2026
In this month’s economic update, Stephen Koukoulas, Zagga’s Economist-in-Residence, discusses the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, softer economic conditions, and easing inflation pressures. He also examines housing market trends, including falling house prices, construction challenges, migration dynamics and the outlook for first home buyers. Stephen concludes with his views on the direction of interest rates and the key economic themes shaping 2027.

ARTICLE – JULY 2026
It has been a relatively quiet month for meaningful news on the economy other than for confirmation of further falls in house prices.

The overarching picture for the economy continues to point to slowing economic growth, a steady rise in the unemployment rate, inflation remaining too high and steady official interest rates.

VIDEO – JULY 2026
Housing declines are gaining momentum, inflation remains elevated, and the RBA appears firmly on hold.
In this July update, Stephen Koukoulas, Zagga’s Economist in Residence, examines falling house prices, shifting demand dynamics, and a softening economic backdrop. He also explores the outlook for inflation, business investment and what it may mean for interest rates in the months ahead.

The RBA held official interest rates steady at its 16 June meeting and signaled that the current level of rates is appropriate to see inflation trend lower over the medium term. Encouragingly, the RBA is of the view that inflation is on track to decelerate towards its 2 to 3 per cent target, which is in line with its most recent forecasts from May.

The RBA highlighted reasons why inflation is likely to decelerate. Resolution to the US-Iran conflict and with that, lower oil prices, will be critical to lower global and domestic inflation. The RBA also noted a higher than forecast unemployment rate and falls in house prices in some cities will help to dampen inflation.

In his latest update, Stephen Koukoulas, Zagga’s Economist-in-Residence, highlights a period of economic uncertainty shaped by policy ambiguity, cautious sentiment, and uneven growth dynamics.

The recent Federal Budget has introduced a degree of uncertainty, particularly around proposed changes to capital gains tax. While other policy measures appear relatively settled, the lack of clarity around potential carve‑outs is contributing to hesitation across business and investment decision‑making.

Australia’s Federal Budget has triggered wide‑ranging debate across markets, households and the property sector. In a recent investor webinar, Stephen Koukoulas, Zagga’s Economist‑in‑Residence, joined Zagga CEO & Co‑Founder Alan Greenstein and Executive Director Frank Hageali to unpack what the budget means for inflation, interest rates, housing, and the real estate private credit landscape.

The defining issues of the past month centre on further tightening in economic conditions and a series of proposed tax amendments to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Worryingly, the unemployment rate climbed to a four and half year high of 4.5 per cent.

The Australian economy is navigating a challenging period, marked by higher interest rates, elevated energy costs and growing signs of strain across confidence, spending and housing.

In his latest Two Minutes for Zagga update, Stephen Koukoulas outlines the key developments shaping economic conditions and what they may mean for households, businesses and property markets as the year progresses.