NSW continues to grapple with a significant housing shortage. Economic forecasts project a substantial increase in population over the next five years, further exacerbating the current housing situation… Looking forward, we remain buoyed by the market opportunity for us to fund many future projects.
While there remain reason to be cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the economy later in 2024, the RBA needs confirmation that inflation is tracking towards the mid-point of its 2 to 3 per cent before moving to cut rates. This is likely to come the next quarter or two as the current sluggish growth dampens the pricing power of business and with that inflation is driven lower.
There are reasons to expect a better second half of 2024 for the economy: Income tax cuts will take effect from 1 July 2024, the prospect for interest rate cuts, rising real wages and a positive wealth effect for households from housing and the strength in the stock market.
As we approach the end of the interest rate rising cycle, we are seeing various indicators stabilise, including building materials, supplies, and stock. This is a positive sign that the market is adjusting, and we are closely monitoring these trends.
Cost pressures, labour costs and the interest rate hiking cycle have been headwinds to the sector in 2023. For 2024, with cost pressures easing and the labour market problems abating, the sector is poised for a stronger 2024 and 2025.
“It’s going to be a tough first half of 2024, I think, for the economy. But when we get to the second half, the tax cuts that we’re hearing so much about, will come through. If we get interest rate cuts and inflations under control, then the second half of 2024 will be a better year for the economy. And we could even have a pretty strong outlook for 2025.”
2023 ended with a clear and marked slowdown… The key issues early in 2024 will be the extent of the fall in inflation – if it falls earlier and more aggressively than the RBA is currently forecasting, the start of the interest rate cutting cycle will be brought forward to the first half of the year.
House prices continue to rise at a solid pace with the strong demand / weak supply dynamics still at play… but the largest cities continue to register large price increases. Since the low point early in 2023, house prices have risen 8 per cent to be at a new record high. Importantly, auction clearance rates have turned down from the mid 2023 peak, while at the same time new listings of properties for sale are rising as sellers take advantage of what are positive issues for them to list their property.
One of the key issues for the Australian economy in 2023 has been the strength in house prices… The end point… is that house prices are set to rise by 10 per cent in 2023, not fall 20 per cent, as the demand and supply dynamics underpin prices across all capital cities and in many regional areas. From an economic perspective, this is good news.
These events have had a significant impact on global financial markets which have reaction by pricing in a higher probability – but not a certainty – that official interest rates will need to rise further to squash any re-emerging inflation pressures while at the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have been dramatically scaled back.
NSW continues to grapple with a significant housing shortage. Economic forecasts project a substantial increase in population over the next five years, further exacerbating the current housing situation… Looking forward, we remain buoyed by the market opportunity for us to fund many future projects.
While there remain reason to be cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the economy later in 2024, the RBA needs confirmation that inflation is tracking towards the mid-point of its 2 to 3 per cent before moving to cut rates. This is likely to come the next quarter or two as the current sluggish growth dampens the pricing power of business and with that inflation is driven lower.
There are reasons to expect a better second half of 2024 for the economy: Income tax cuts will take effect from 1 July 2024, the prospect for interest rate cuts, rising real wages and a positive wealth effect for households from housing and the strength in the stock market.
As we approach the end of the interest rate rising cycle, we are seeing various indicators stabilise, including building materials, supplies, and stock. This is a positive sign that the market is adjusting, and we are closely monitoring these trends.
Cost pressures, labour costs and the interest rate hiking cycle have been headwinds to the sector in 2023. For 2024, with cost pressures easing and the labour market problems abating, the sector is poised for a stronger 2024 and 2025.
“It’s going to be a tough first half of 2024, I think, for the economy. But when we get to the second half, the tax cuts that we’re hearing so much about, will come through. If we get interest rate cuts and inflations under control, then the second half of 2024 will be a better year for the economy. And we could even have a pretty strong outlook for 2025.”
2023 ended with a clear and marked slowdown… The key issues early in 2024 will be the extent of the fall in inflation – if it falls earlier and more aggressively than the RBA is currently forecasting, the start of the interest rate cutting cycle will be brought forward to the first half of the year.
House prices continue to rise at a solid pace with the strong demand / weak supply dynamics still at play… but the largest cities continue to register large price increases. Since the low point early in 2023, house prices have risen 8 per cent to be at a new record high. Importantly, auction clearance rates have turned down from the mid 2023 peak, while at the same time new listings of properties for sale are rising as sellers take advantage of what are positive issues for them to list their property.
One of the key issues for the Australian economy in 2023 has been the strength in house prices… The end point… is that house prices are set to rise by 10 per cent in 2023, not fall 20 per cent, as the demand and supply dynamics underpin prices across all capital cities and in many regional areas. From an economic perspective, this is good news.
These events have had a significant impact on global financial markets which have reaction by pricing in a higher probability – but not a certainty – that official interest rates will need to rise further to squash any re-emerging inflation pressures while at the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have been dramatically scaled back.
We would like to acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the lands, seas, and communities in which we provide our services. We would also like to pay our respects to the Elders past, present and emerging, and the continuing cultural influence they have on Australia.
Zagga Market Pty Limited (Australian Credit Licence 490904) ACN 611 662 401 acts as the Servicer of loans acting on behalf of the credit provider, Zagga Investments Pty Limited (AFSL 492354) ACN 615 154 786, trustee of the Zagga Investments Lending Trust
All portfolio numbers quoted correct as at 30 October 2024.
*Average investor return across the active portfolio as at 30 October 2024.
**Target return is after expenses and any applicable management fees for the year ending 30 June 2024. OCR = Australian Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and investments are subject to investment risk, fees and costs. Returns are not guaranteed.
Prospective investors wishing to invest in a Zagga direct investment or a Zagga Fund should fully consider the Information Memorandum, ZFF Fact Sheet and/or ZWF Brochure, available from Zagga, before applying to invest. Investments are subject to risks.
Articles on this website have been prepared by Zagga Investments Pty Limited (AFSL 492354) ACN 615 154 786 (Zagga) for information purposes only. It doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, nor is it intended as a substitute for any accounting, tax or other professional advice, consultation or service. Nothing in this article shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Economic conditions may change.
Any analysis provided in this article is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Zagga does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. Zagga accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Any opinions expressed in this article are of the author and is subject to change without notice. Readers are reminded to exercise caution and use their own judgment when interpreting and applying the information contained in this article No member of Zagga accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of such information.
