2023 ended with a clear and marked slowdown… The key issues early in 2024 will be the extent of the fall in inflation – if it falls earlier and more aggressively than the RBA is currently forecasting, the start of the interest rate cutting cycle will be brought forward to the first half of the year.
House prices continue to rise at a solid pace with the strong demand / weak supply dynamics still at play… but the largest cities continue to register large price increases. Since the low point early in 2023, house prices have risen 8 per cent to be at a new record high. Importantly, auction clearance rates have turned down from the mid 2023 peak, while at the same time new listings of properties for sale are rising as sellers take advantage of what are positive issues for them to list their property.
One of the key issues for the Australian economy in 2023 has been the strength in house prices… The end point… is that house prices are set to rise by 10 per cent in 2023, not fall 20 per cent, as the demand and supply dynamics underpin prices across all capital cities and in many regional areas. From an economic perspective, this is good news.
These events have had a significant impact on global financial markets which have reaction by pricing in a higher probability – but not a certainty – that official interest rates will need to rise further to squash any re-emerging inflation pressures while at the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have been dramatically scaled back.
The 1.2 million dwelling target would mean…. just under 20,000 private sector dwellings per month every month for five years on average… a major positive for the construction sector with an extended upswing.
Zagga’s general market overview provides insights into the Official Cash Rate, Inflation, Population & Employment, and Housing.
Strong demand from rapid population growth in concert with limited supply because of relatively soft rates on new dwelling construction are seeing house prices continuing to rise. The price increases are across all capital cities and are extending to most regional centres.
While there remains clear evidence of the economy slowing, Stephen Koukoulas, Zagga’s Economist ‘in residence’, also acknowledges the positive trends currently coming to light: “House prices are… stronger, being in the early stages of a cyclical upturn with a surge in demand for housing coming from sharply higher immigration and supply being constrained by low levels of new dwelling construction.”
House prices are rising. This has a range of important implications particularly when it comes to the cost effectiveness of new construction and the medium term outlook for the dwelling sector. If what we are seeing on house prices is the early stages of a price uplift, even of moderate proportions, the incentives for builders moves in favour of new construction.
With official interest rates nearing their peak, having been hiked 375 basis points since May 2022, the Australian economy is slowing.
2023 ended with a clear and marked slowdown… The key issues early in 2024 will be the extent of the fall in inflation – if it falls earlier and more aggressively than the RBA is currently forecasting, the start of the interest rate cutting cycle will be brought forward to the first half of the year.
House prices continue to rise at a solid pace with the strong demand / weak supply dynamics still at play… but the largest cities continue to register large price increases. Since the low point early in 2023, house prices have risen 8 per cent to be at a new record high. Importantly, auction clearance rates have turned down from the mid 2023 peak, while at the same time new listings of properties for sale are rising as sellers take advantage of what are positive issues for them to list their property.
One of the key issues for the Australian economy in 2023 has been the strength in house prices… The end point… is that house prices are set to rise by 10 per cent in 2023, not fall 20 per cent, as the demand and supply dynamics underpin prices across all capital cities and in many regional areas. From an economic perspective, this is good news.
These events have had a significant impact on global financial markets which have reaction by pricing in a higher probability – but not a certainty – that official interest rates will need to rise further to squash any re-emerging inflation pressures while at the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have been dramatically scaled back.
The 1.2 million dwelling target would mean…. just under 20,000 private sector dwellings per month every month for five years on average… a major positive for the construction sector with an extended upswing.
Zagga’s general market overview provides insights into the Official Cash Rate, Inflation, Population & Employment, and Housing.
Strong demand from rapid population growth in concert with limited supply because of relatively soft rates on new dwelling construction are seeing house prices continuing to rise. The price increases are across all capital cities and are extending to most regional centres.
While there remains clear evidence of the economy slowing, Stephen Koukoulas, Zagga’s Economist ‘in residence’, also acknowledges the positive trends currently coming to light: “House prices are… stronger, being in the early stages of a cyclical upturn with a surge in demand for housing coming from sharply higher immigration and supply being constrained by low levels of new dwelling construction.”
House prices are rising. This has a range of important implications particularly when it comes to the cost effectiveness of new construction and the medium term outlook for the dwelling sector. If what we are seeing on house prices is the early stages of a price uplift, even of moderate proportions, the incentives for builders moves in favour of new construction.
With official interest rates nearing their peak, having been hiked 375 basis points since May 2022, the Australian economy is slowing.
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We would like to acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the lands, seas, and communities in which we provide our services. We would also like to pay our respects to the Elders past, present and emerging, and the continuing cultural influence they have on Australia.
Zagga Market Pty Limited (Australian Credit Licence 490904) ACN 611 662 401 acts as the Servicer of loans acting on behalf of the credit provider, Zagga Investments Pty Limited (AFSL 492354) ACN 615 154 786, trustee of the Zagga Investments Lending Trust
All portfolio numbers quoted correct as at 1 March 2024.
*Average investor return across the active portfolio as at 1 March 2024.
**Target return is after expenses and any applicable management fees for the year ending 30 June 2024. OCR = Australian Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and investments are subject to investment risk, fees and costs. Returns are not guaranteed.
Prospective investors wishing to invest in a Zagga direct investment or a Zagga Fund should fully consider the Information Memorandum, ZFF Fact Sheet and/or ZWF Brochure, available from Zagga, before applying to invest. Investments are subject to risks.
Articles on this website have been prepared by Zagga Investments Pty Limited (AFSL 492354) ACN 615 154 786 (Zagga) for information purposes only. It doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, nor is it intended as a substitute for any accounting, tax or other professional advice, consultation or service. Nothing in this article shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any financial product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Economic conditions may change.
Any analysis provided in this article is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Zagga does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. Zagga accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Any opinions expressed in this article are of the author and is subject to change without notice. Readers are reminded to exercise caution and use their own judgment when interpreting and applying the information contained in this article No member of Zagga accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of such information.
