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Aussie real estate market faces private credit test

INTERNATIONAL FINANCING REVIEW
Some parts of Australia’s real estate sector may struggle to attract funding as private credit lenders become increasingly selective amid tougher market conditions and heightened regulatory scrutiny.

Real estate now makes up approximately half of the private credit lending market of around A$200bn (US$138bn) in Australia according to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s estimates and looks like it is headed for its first period of genuine credit differentiation with industry sources divided over whether the higher construction costs, forced revaluations and changes in underwriting will cause a slowdown in some real estate projects or just significant repricing of risk.

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local bond market

Will private credit overtake the local bond market?

AUSBIZ
In this interview, Tom Cranfield, Executive Director at Zagga, discusses the rapid expansion of Australia’s private credit market and the projection it could surpass the Australian bond market by 2029. Cranfield states that capital is reallocating from traditional fixed income and hybrids into private credit, yet investor education lags this growth.

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Investor education lags as private credit attracts new capital

INVESTOR DAILY
Rapid private credit growth is drawing more investors but industry leaders warn education has failed to keep pace with the expanding demand.

Australia’s booming private credit market is attracting growing numbers of investors, but industry participants have warned that investor understanding of the asset class is failing to keep pace with its rapid expansion, increasing the importance of due diligence and manager selection.

Real estate private credit investment manager Zagga said Australia’s private credit market had grown to about $235 billion in assets under management, delivering a compound annual growth rate of 21 per cent over the past decade compared with around 5 per cent for bank debt and bonds.

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Private credit growth outpaces investor understanding

ADVISER VOICE
The rapid growth of Australia’s private credit sector has outpaced investor understanding of the asset class, creating a gap between rising participation and a deeper appreciation of the risks, opportunities, and structural differences that distinguish high-quality strategies from the rest of the market, according to real estate private credit investment manager, Zagga.

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Private credit growth outpaces investor understanding

The rapid growth of Australia’s private credit sector has outpaced investor understanding of the asset class, creating a gap between rising participation and a deeper appreciation of the risks, opportunities, and structural differences that distinguish high-quality strategies from the rest of the market, according to real estate private credit investment manager, Zagga.

Celebrating its nine-year anniversary this month, Zagga has grown from its initial 30 investors, to $40 million AUM and $60 million deployed in its first year, and is now on track to close the financial year with ~$1 billion in new originations, with ~$3 billion invested across more than 350 transactions in the Australian real estate sector. Its investor base now exceeds 1,000 entities, globally.

To mark the milestone occasion, and address the education gap, Zagga has launched an educational whitepaper series spotlighting real estate private credit and homing in on the topics that are keeping investors up at night.

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Nine years delivering through market cycles

As we mark our ninth year, we reflect on a simple proposition that has guided us since inception: invest conservatively, back real assets, protect capital, and deliver consistent returns – and do it with trust, transparency, integrity, and a focus on execution at the core of everything we do.

While Zagga is nine years young, the experience within the business spans multiple cycles and decades of market activity dating back to the 1960s. Since inception, we have navigated COVID, rate reductions and increases, regulatory changes, labour pressures, and now tax changes and geopolitical uncertainty. Through all this, we have unwaveringly honoured our commitments to investors and borrowers alike.

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Budget reforms drive Aussie investors to rethink property exposure

For the past two decades, generous tax concessions encouraged continued investment. The approach was straightforward: borrow, hold, negatively gear, benefit from the CGT discount on the eventual sale. However, the recent Budget announcement has disrupted each element of this tried-and-tested equation.

And, while properties held before Budget night on 12 May 2026 are exempt, this tax overhaul has many Australian investors reconsidering their investment strategies and rethinking their exposure to property.

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interest rates on hold

Interest rates on hold: rising unemployment and falling house prices counter high inflation

The RBA held official interest rates steady at its 16 June meeting and signaled that the current level of rates is appropriate to see inflation trend lower over the medium term. Encouragingly, the RBA is of the view that inflation is on track to decelerate towards its 2 to 3 per cent target, which is in line with its most recent forecasts from May.

The RBA highlighted reasons why inflation is likely to decelerate. Resolution to the US-Iran conflict and with that, lower oil prices, will be critical to lower global and domestic inflation. The RBA also noted a higher than forecast unemployment rate and falls in house prices in some cities will help to dampen inflation.

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traditional approach to portfolio construction

Tax reforms set to reshape traditional approach to portfolio construction

For many investors, volatility has become the new norm. Persistent market fluctuations, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and rising correlation between equities and listed fixed income have contributed to a more challenging environment for growth-oriented strategies and portfolio risk management. Traditional portfolio construction is under increasing strain.

The recent Federal Budget reforms to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing add further pressure.

In an environment of constant volatility, uncertainty, and unpredictability, investment dynamics are changing, demanding a rethink of traditional portfolio construction and wealth creation strategies. Income, realised gains, and alternative assets are firmly in focus.

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