Given current economic conditions, there is near unanimity that the RBA will resume its interest rate cutting cycle on 20 May with further interest rate cuts expected over the following 12 months. Low inflation, a soft economy and signs of a weakening in the labour market are all factors that has markets pricing in a cash rate below 3 per cent in the first half of 2026, down from the current 4.10 per cent.
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With unrest and uncertainty rippling through markets and shaking investor confidence, we have seen a surge in private credit’s popularity – offering potential for reliable, steady income, protection against inflation, and diversification away from public markets. As this growth continues, private credit is set to become an even greater focus for investors, borrowers and regulators.
Traditionally, multi-asset portfolios have relied on the negative correlation between bonds and equities for diversification. Yet, increasingly, we are seeing a positive correlation in public markets. 2022 was an extreme example, where we saw significant correlated dips in both bonds and equities. With current heightened volatility in global markets, investors need true diversification and downside protection via uncorrelated asset classes.
THE URBAN DEVELOPER
The commercial property market has become a cautionary tale for many investors as they turn to private credit as an alternative pathway to property, writes Tom Cranfield, Director, Investment and Risk.
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Private credit can avoid the volatility often seen in public markets for products such as bonds – which are extremely sensitive to interest rate movements and sentiment – instead, providing a predictable income stream based on the loan’s interest rate and duration.
The broad economic themes that kicked off 2024 remain in place, with economic weakness, unemployment moving higher and inflation set to fall to the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target.
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As we step into the second quarter of 2024, it’s imperative to reflect on the economic landscape that shaped the preceding months. In Australia, the first quarter of 2024 was marked by a blend of optimism and caution, as various sectors navigated through both challenges and opportunities. Among the focal points of discussion was the state of commercial real estate debt (CRED), a critical component influencing the overall economic outlook.
“It’s going to be a tough first half of 2024, I think, for the economy. But when we get to the second half, the tax cuts that we’re hearing so much about, will come through. If we get interest rate cuts and inflations under control, then the second half of 2024 will be a better year for the economy. And we could even have a pretty strong outlook for 2025.”
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Zagga Market Pty Limited (Australian Credit Licence 490904) ACN 611 662 401 acts as the Servicer of loans acting on behalf of the credit provider, Zagga Investments Pty Limited (AFSL 492354) ACN 615 154 786, trustee of the Zagga Investments Lending Trust
All portfolio numbers quoted correct as at 31 December 2025.
*Average investor return across the active portfolio as at 31 December 2025.
**Target return is after expenses and any applicable management fees for the year ended 30 June 2026. OCR = Australian Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, and should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Investments involve risk, fees and costs, and returns are not guaranteed. No representation or warranty is made regarding future performance, and economic conditions may change.
Prospective investors wishing to invest in a Zagga direct investment or a Zagga Fund should fully consider the Information Memorandum, ZFF Fact Sheet and/or ZWF Brochure, available from Zagga, before applying to invest. Investments are subject to risks.
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